Solar Panel Payback Calculator

Work out how long a rooftop solar system takes to break even and what it saves over 25 years. Adjust system size, install cost, incentives, sunlight, and future rate increases.

Sunlight:
kW
/W

Price per watt before incentives

%
kWh/kW
/kWh
%

Payback is when cumulative bill savings equal your net system cost. The model assumes 0.5% panel degradation per year and grows your electricity rate by the escalation you set.

Payback period

8.1 yrs

Net cost $11,760 after 30% incentive

Year 1 savings

$1,326

25-yr net profit

$33,445.3

284% ROI

Cumulative savings

$6,968
Yr 5
$14,845
Yr 10
$23,752
Yr 15
$33,821
Yr 20
$45,205
Yr 25

Breaks even against the $11,760 net cost at 8.1 yrs.

Understanding solar payback

What payback period means

The payback period is the point where the money you have saved on electricity bills equals the net cost you paid for the system. After that point, the electricity your panels produce is effectively free — everything else is profit over the panels’ life.

Why incentives matter so much

Tax credits and rebates come straight off the system cost, so a 30% incentive can shave years off the payback. Because the credit reduces the amount you need to recoup, it has an outsized effect compared with a small change in the install price.

Rate escalation is the hidden multiplier

Electricity prices tend to rise every year. Because your panels offset power at whatever the future rate is, a higher escalation rate makes solar pay back faster and pushes lifetime savings up — which is why this calculator models it explicitly rather than assuming a flat price.

Degradation and the 25-year view

Panels lose around 0.5% of output per year, so year 25 produces a little less than year 1. The model bakes this in so the long-term savings figure is realistic rather than optimistic. Most quality panels are warrantied to still produce ~85% of rated output at 25 years.

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